De impact van de COVID-19-crisis op de vergrijzingskosten

In July, the Study Committee on Ageing published its 19th annual report estimating the budgetary impact of ageing over the long term. More in particular, it concerns a forecast until 2070 of the change in all social expenditure expressed as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP). Since the projections made are inevitably based on hypotheses surrounded by (sometimes considerable) uncertainty, this is by no means a prediction. This year, on top of the traditional uncertainty inherent in long-term forecasts, there is an additional uncertainty regarding the evolution and socio-economic consequences of the COVID-19 epidemic. This short article summarises the hypotheses of these consequences and shows the extent to which they have an impact on the estimated costs of ageing.