De impact van de COVID-19-cri­sis op de ver­grij­zings­kos­ten

In July, the Study Committee on Ageing published its 19th annual report estimating the budgetary impact of ageing over the long term. More in particular, it concerns a forecast until 2070 of the change in all social expenditure expressed as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP). Since the projections made are inevitably based on hypotheses surrounded by (sometimes considerable) uncertainty, this is by no means a prediction. This year, on top of the traditional uncertainty inherent in long-term forecasts, there is an additional uncertainty regarding the evolution and socio-economic consequences of the COVID-19 epidemic. This short article summarises the hypotheses of these consequences and shows the extent to which they have an impact on the estimated costs of ageing.