Vaccine Economics

The Covid-19 vaccine will supercharge global growth in 2021, but short-term headwinds, and a complete recovery only by 2022, will create transition risks.

In mid-2021, despite the sizeable hurdles on the demand (vaccination skepticism) and supply sides (production & distribution bottlenecks), we expect the vaccination of vulnerable populations (20-40% of the total) to be completed, setting the stage for a buoyant growth rally in H2 2021.

Policymakers will particularly be under scrutiny, as they will continue to run the show again in 2021-22.

In the real economy, cyclical sectors (including energy, metals, and automotive) to see strong catch-up growth as soon as Q2 2021 as the recovery starts to unfold and economic uncertainty recedes.