Trumponomics and US Public Finances — The trumpets may blare, but the music is rare

In this research report we discuss the main fiscal policy proposals that have so far been put forward by the new US President Trump, starting with a brief overview of recent evolutions in US public finances and related projections under current policies. Our main conclusion is that Trump’s proposals are not well designed for spurring economic growth significantly, but are likely to further deteriorate the already worrisome fiscal position of the US economy. Notwithstanding the Republican majority in Congress, Trump will have to compromise on his ideas, which will temper sustainability risks of government finances. At the same time, such compromises are likely to lead to disappointment in financial markets that are currently anticipating a strong economic boost.