The Belgian Economy in Corona Times: The Covid-19 Pandemic is Causing an Unprecedented Economic Rollercoaster

The corona crisis is taking a high human toll, but clearly also has a significant impact on the economy. In this article, we offer an update of KBC’s economic outlook for the Belgian economy. We are aware that this numerical estimate, even more than in normal times, is uncertain. Nevertheless, we want to provide new economic insights. They take into account the latest developments in the spread and medical impact of the Covid-19 virus and policy responses to mitigate the impact on public health and the economy. In our analysis we take several possible scenarios for GDP growth into account: a base scenario and an optimistic and pessimistic scenario, which we currently assign a probability of 50%, 15% and 35% respectively. In a box added to the article, we also provide an estimate of the impact of the crisis on Belgium’s public finances.