Sustainability Debt ratio Public finances Negative growth shocks Public investments Rising interest rates Debt ceiling

The debt ratios of the federal government and the various regions and communities in Belgium have risen substantially in recent years and, in general, they are set to increase further. This raises the question of how sustainable public finances truly are. The article investigates this by way of a regional debt sustainability analysis covering medium-, short- and long-term risks. It also assesses to what extent debt levels and dynamics will be impacted by negative growth shocks, rising interest rates and higher public investment. Finally, it explores how a national debt ceiling could be distributed across the various government entities and what fiscal efforts would be required at each level.


Stefan Van Parys

David Cornille

Marjolein Deroose

Hervé Godefroid

Wim Melyn

Patrick Stiglhamber

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